We’ve got a big day ahead of us, Magic fans. The home stretch has begun, as we are closing in on the historically disappointing, yet exciting day – the 2022 NBA Draft Lottery night. With this fateful day only hours ahead of us, it feels appropriate to complete a breakdown of the updated lottery system for those who are unaware, simulate the Magic six draft possibilities and discuss who I believe Orlando should take with each pick possibility.
Let’s begin!
Lottery Breakdown
The 2010’s decade was certainly one for great basketball, however, it also produced some of the most forgettable basketball play in history. Teams such as Philadelphia and Los Angeles had become such dominant “tankers” that they were basically guaranteed a spot in the top 3 of the following NBA draft. Eventually, the NBA’s Board of Governors decided enough was enough, and put a stop to rewarding 15 win teams year after year. The new lottery system, put in place beginning with the 2019 NBA Draft, sees that even the worst team in the league cannot be guaranteed a premier selection.
Let’s talk about odds. The three worst teams in the league, record-wise, are tied for the best odds at the number one overall pick at 14%. It’s the probability of late selection that differentiates these teams, based on record. The worst team in the league (in this year’s case, Houston) is guaranteed a top 5 pick, with the 5th overall pick being that team’s most likely outcome at 48%. Apart from the 48% is “diminishing odds”, starting at 14% for the 1st overall pick, 13.4% for the second, and so on until the 4th pick. For the second worst team in the league (in this year’s case, Orlando), those same diminishing odds from 1-4 apply. As opposed to the high chance at landing 5th overall, the Magic are eligible to pick 6th unlike the Rockets. That 48% is split into two, with a 28% chance at landing the 5th pick and a 20% chance at landing the 6th. The Orlando Magic are capped off at a top 6 selection. The same process replicates for the 3rd worst team, meaning Detroit has the probability to pick 7th overall. From 4th worst to 14th worst, every team’s chance at a top 4 selection diminishes, and the team’s odds are spread amongst their ranking and 4 spots down (i.e. Sacramento is the 7th worst team in the league, so in the case that a surprise team jumps to the top 4, they can possibly pick within pick 7 and pick 11–depending on how many surprise teams make the jump.)
Now that you all have a better understanding of the lottery odds, let’s take a look at who I would select for the Orlando Magic depending on where their pick ends up on lottery night.
With the 1st pick, in the 2022 NBA Draft, the Orlando Magic select…
PAOLO BANCHERO
Personal Comparison:
More polished Julius Randle/Tobias Harris lite
College: DUKE
POS: PF HT: 6’10” WT: 250 LBS AGE: 19
Paolo Banchero headed into the 2021-22 college basketball season as the consensus number one overall pick, yet the rankings between himself, Smith Jr., and Holmgren have shuffled over time. The 1st pick in this draft is up for grabs amongst that pool of three prospects, and heavily depends on which team wins the lottery. After heavy study of Banchero’s freshman year at Duke University, he checks all the boxes for Orlando as they are drafting in a position of need, not fit. Many could argue that Franz Wagner could one day become “that guy” for Orlando, due to Wagner’s elite combination of size, finesse, and shooting. That being said, it seems to have been well over a decade since the Magic have for certain had a solidified number one scoring option that’s capable of creating his own shot at multiple levels. Selecting Paolo Banchero would not exactly guarantee a solution, however it’s a massive step in the right direction. Come playoff time, every team needs one guy to give the ball to and let him work. The interesting part is, even the bad, non-playoff teams have secured their guy (I.e. SGA, Jalen Green, Cade Cunningham). It seems the Magic are the only team that’s late to the party. If you’re going to land that number one pick, you’d better swing on that chance with Banchero. His elite size and quick feet on the offensive end make for a freakish matchup for most positions. Banchero uses a mix of footwork and physical dominance to get his own, functioning best as an off the dribble scorer in the midrange and on the block facing the basket. What also stands out about Paolo’s game and likely separates him from the pack is his playmaking. Compared to his fellow top three members, Paolo holds a noticeable skill gap in the passing arena. His ideal role with the ball in his hands can always change, mainly due to the excellent passing ability he possesses as a big man. This allows for mismatch opportunities off the pick and roll, along with the actualization of a pass-heavy offense that surrounds Franz, Markelle, and Paolo. The biggest knack on Banchero’s game is defense, as it’s evident in game film that Banchero doesn’t exactly “give it his all” on the other end of the floor. The physical traits are there, so the struggles that are often the basis of Banchero’s criticism seem to be more of a mental game. When added to the Magic, the team’s defensive culture anchored by players like Jon Isaac and Jalen Suggs should do their due diligence and hopefully assist Banchero in realizing his defensive potential.
With the 2nd pick, in the 2022 NBA Draft, the Orlando Magic select…
CHET HOLMGREN
Personal Comparison: Jaren Jackson Jr. with guard skills
College: GONZAGA
POS: C HT: 7’0” WT: 195 LBS AGE: 20
If you have been following the Orlando Magic for the last few years and take drafting track record into consideration, then you’re well aware this pick is a no-brainer for the front office, should he be available at two. Chet Holmgren out of Gonzaga university is everything John Hammond and Jeff Weltman could possibly want out of a prospect. The freak of nature 7 footer who has mesmerized the world of college ball with his handling skills, rim protection, and transition greatness sounds too good to be true. What’s intriguing about Holmgren as a prospect is the mystery behind his positionally. One would assume a 7 footer should always play the 5, in very rare cases slide over to the 4. Holmgren’s wiry frame and shooting ability allows for him to “flex the floor”, so don’t be surprised if he excels in a wing role. Chet can cover lots of ground defensively, especially in the paint. It’s safe to say his best role coming into the league would be as a weak side help defender. Holmgren would fit extremely well with this team, off the court and on. Positional need is also taken into consideration (although this may be contradictory to my prior statements) due to the fact that Orlando’s biggest hole in its starting lineup is its Center position. A team of Franz, Markelle, Wendell, and Chet sounds like beautiful, fluid basketball to me. The front office may also consider his history with Jalen Suggs, as it bodes well for the team’s culture. Suggs and Holmgren grew up playing basketball together at every level, and Holmgren even followed in Suggs’ footsteps by playing for Gonzaga after high school. The two have been close since childhood, so I’m certain this pairing would only increase the culture of brotherhood this young Magic team possesses.
With the 3rd pick, in the 2022 NBA Draft, the Orlando Magic select…
JABARI SMITH JR.
Comparison: Rashard Lewis
College: AUBURN
POS: PF HT: 6’10” WT: 220 LBS AGE: 18
Jabari Smith Jr., son of former Orlando Magic player Jabari Smith Sr., saw his stock rise from projected top-10 to possible 1st overall pick in a matter of weeks. His impressive shooting display and defensive tenacity was enough for fans to fantasize of adding him to their roster. On a team like Orlando, Smith Jr. would certainly thrive, fitting in seamlessly with Orlando’s group of young forwards with long wingspans and defensive prowess. He’d also give the Orlando Magic a much needed boost in the shooting department, as his 3 point percentage (42%) would lead Orlando by over 4% of the current team leader (Harris, 38%). Personally, I find Smith Jr. as a stellar prospect. The kid is just fun to watch, he can score and shoots with such poise, and has defensive instincts that likely has the Orlando front office drooling. This makes for a softer blow for fans hoping for the number one pick—the top-3 of this draft offers so much talent it’s almost impossible to be dissatisfied. What sets Jabari as the lowest of the consensus top-3 is a large concern in his on-ball ability. He has a very stiff dribble—often losing the ball at his feet when driving, failing to drive past smaller defenders, and struggles with being the primary ball handler. A nicer way to put this is: if your team ends up with Jabari, expect a shooter, not a shot creator. Smith also finds trouble as a finisher, which is odd considering his physical attributes as a wiry 6’10” forward with wing traits. He finished at the rim at a very rough percentage of 54%, along with only 14% of his total field goal attempts being layups/dunks. His lack of rim aggression and on-ball struggles will have to be addressed during the offseason, yet I still believe he’ll end up as an extremely good NBA talent. Definitely a pick to be happy with, should he fall to us.
With the 4th pick, in the 2022 NBA Draft, the Orlando Magic select…
SHAEDON SHARPE
Personal Comparison: Jalen Green
College: KENTUCKY/DREAM CITY CHRISTIAN(HS)
POS: SG-SF HT: 6’6” WT: 200 LBS AGE: 18
This is where the draft becomes very interesting, as Sharpe is this year’s wild card in the lottery. Soon after Sharpe committed to Kentucky, he was made aware that he had enough high school credits to graduate early, therefore making him eligible to be a part of the Kentucky lineup for 2021-2022. Sharpe’s camp mutually concluded with the university that he would “red-shirt” the season and simply be a part of the team practices and warmups. Once news broke that Sharpe met the yearly requirement to enter his name in the NBA Draft, he’s since been mocked at around the 5-10 range, as most teams may see him as a risk due to lack of proven talent. Sharpe hasn’t played true organized basketball in over a year, however that shouldn’t be much of a concern when evaluating him as a prospect. He’s one of the most electrifying athletes this generation has seen, hence the Jalen Green comparison. The Magic missed out on their chance at the Houston premier scorer last year, so taking a prospect like Sharpe is a great way to make up for it. His vertical leap is rumored to be near the highest recorded jump in NBA history. But enough about athleticism, there are countless players in the league who’s athleticism is their only viable trait. This is not the case with Shaedon, as what makes him such a tantalizing prospect is his creation ability. As referred to in the Paolo Banchero analysis, Shaedon will be Orlando’s next best bet at landing an alpha scorer in the draft, something they desperately need. It cannot be overstated how gifted this kid is when it comes to scoring a bucket—there’s a reason he was the top recruit of his high school class, prior to reclassification.
While there isn’t all that much reliable film to study on Sharpe, his flashes at the EYBL circuit are the reason he has shot up draft boards. He posted averages of over 22 points per game on above average efficiency (except from the free throw line, which was a small sample size). Truthfully, Sharpe’s draft position is all going to depend on how he performs in pre-draft workouts, the combine, and private team interviews. Here’s to hoping Orlando takes a big swing at a future scoring machine, should we fall out of the top 3.
With the 5th pick, in the 2022 NBA Draft, the Orlando Magic select…
KEEGAN MURRAY
Personal Comparison: Franz Wagner lite
College: IOWA
POS: SF-PF HT: 6’8” WT: 225 LBS AGE: 22
Murray looks to be another Swiss-Army knife prospect, as his game is oriented around mastery of multiple aspects of the offensive side. His versatility as a player is his selling point, thanks to his elite scoring arsenal—Murray averaged over 23 points per game in his second college season. What many fans are skeptical of is his translation into the league; how will his draft age affect his ability to develop? Does Iowa’s infamous offense give a boost to his scoring numbers? While Murray may not possess a superstar ceiling in comparison to Shaedon Sharpe, it’s safe to say his myriad of elite attributes point towards a long, contributing NBA career. After it was revealed that the Orlando Magic’s front office provided a draft promise to Franz Wagner last year, one can assume that Keegan Murray will be heavily considered by Orlando in the unfortunate scenario that sees Orlando picking at 5 once again. Let it be known—Murray is a heavily talented player who would contribute immediately to this Magic team. If his name is called on draft night to Orlando, do not fret Magic fans. This kid will be really good.
With the 6th pick, in the 2022 NBA Draft, the Orlando Magic select…
ADRIAN GRIFFIN JR.
Personal Comparison: Desmond Bane
College: DUKE
POS: SG HT: 6’6” WT: 222 LBS AGE: 18
The son of current Toronto Raptors assistant coach Adrian Griffin Sr. has seen his fair share of setbacks from high school up to the draft process. Griffin entered the college basketball season as a consensus top-3 guy, some even mocked him at the 1st overall pick. Due to injuries and a noticeable drop in athleticism and burst, his draft stock throughout the season has dropped noticeably. Griffin saw himself function in Coach K’s offense as a secondary initiator and spot-up shooter off the bench. Griffin shot the ball at a stellar clip of 44.7%, solidifying himself as by far the best shooter in this draft class. Griffin is also highly talented in the high post and mid-range, utilizing his size and long wingspan (7’) to deplete distance to the rim and get off tough, high-arching shots. Some concerns of his game that have caused the draft stock of the elite shooter to fall surround his lack of general quickness, on both ends of the floor. Griffin possesses a great NBA body— especially one of a premier wing defender— yet fails to be a positive on the defensive end. He’s very prone to being blown by on defense, and his slow feet make it difficult on offense for him to get a step on his defender. With all these concerns in mind it would still be logical to assume that, should we fall to the worst case scenario 6th pick and Griffin is available, the Orlando Magic would undoubtedly select a much-needed pure shooter with a long wingspan and plenty of untapped potential.
Although Orlando is very likely to get disappointed on lottery night, they’d only be adding onto an already ultra talented core of young players. There’s truly no way to lose, regardless of when we’re on the clock. The future of Orlando is in good hands, and the pool of players we can select from is filled with talent. Draft night will be one for the books, but for now here’s to hoping for an unforgettable lotto night, Magic fans!
